Election Update: Clinton's Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight is now updating their probability from giving Hillary Clinton a 51% chance of winning the election yesteday July 31, to raising it to 53.3% today. We may not live through this daily dose of poll news. Read their detailed breakdown of new polling and why their model raised Hillary's advantage today.

Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump CNN

A new CNN/ORC poll gives Hillary Clinton a 7-point convention bounce, in a 4-way race with Johnson and Stein. In a 2-way race, Clinton leads 45% to 37%.

Post-convention, the % of people who believe her policies will move the country in the right direction increased from 43% to 48%. There has also been a significant increase from May when 48% said their vote was one of support for her vs. an anti-Trump vote to now, where 58% support her.

Did Clinton get a post-convention bump? CBS News

In a CBS poll of 1393 adults, including 1,131 registered voters conducted July 29-31, 2016, 46% of voters say they support Clinton in November, with 39% saying they'll back Trump.

Support among Sanders voters increased from 67% pre-convention to 73% in the new poll.

Trump's RNC Was Least Effective Party Convention In Three Decades, Poll Finds Slate

Last week the pollsters at Gallup revealed that Donald Trump's Republican National Convention keynote was the most poorly received of any such speech since they began keeping data on the subject in 1996. On Monday, Gallup released another Trump-related finding that's also bad news for the GOP nominee.

Fewer People say they are now willing to vote for him.

Clinton & Trump On Economy

Moody's: Where Trump's Economic Policies Might Spark Recession, Clinton's Could Boost GDP and Lower Unemployment Forbes

As a follow-up to their June analysis of the consequences of Donald Trump’s economic policy proposals, Moody’s economists Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis and Adam Ozimek released on Friday a twin analysis that scrutinizes the potential consequences of Hillary Clinton’s economic policy proposals. As they did for Trump, Zandi et. al took a microscope to three different scenarios: assuming all of Clinton’s proposals become law; assuming Congress intervenes and she gets just most of what she’s proposing; and assuming that significant compromise is required and what ultimately gets enacted are modified versions of her original proposals. But while the format of the newest report is the same, the conclusion is anything but.

“The upshot of our analysis is that Secretary Clinton’s economic policies, when taken together, will result in a stronger U.S. economy under almost any scenario,” they wrote on Friday. ”The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished,” they concluded in June.

Hillary Clinton Headlines August 1, 2016

From Humphrey Hatred to Bernie or Bust -- The High Price of the Politics of Petulance The Daily Beast

With 100 Days to Go, Is Clinton or Trump the Favorite? The Daily Beast

This man's touching story about Hillary Clinton is going viral Harper's Bazaar US

Can Sanders and Warren Work Together Politico

Top Jeb Bush adviser leaves GOP. will vote for Hillary Clinton if Florida Is Close CNN

Trump Versus Hitler: What We Can Learn From Weimar Germany The Daily Beast

Longtime Trump Adviser Claims Khizr Khan Is a Terrorist Agent Slate

Her Shot: Hillary Clinton Shares a Vision of America Out of Hamilton New York Times

A Glass Ceiling Now Broken, Is US Ready for a Madam President New York Times

The World Economic Forum, in its latest Global Gender Gap report, ranked the United States 72nd of 145 countries for political empowerment, trailing countries like Cuba, Cape Verde and Kenya.

In part, experts say, the American system is at fault. The presidential nominating process, with its long and ruinously expensive campaigns, is tougher on nonconventional candidates than the parliamentary system is in many countries. And American politicians are averse to the quotas that helped increase female participation in other countries.

Badges and T-shirts deriding Mrs. Clinton in obscene terms or using sexual slurs became common at Trump and Sanders rallies. But women who have succeeded in Washington also point to deeply ingrained male chauvinism as a powerful impediment to success.

Madeleine Albright, America's first female secretary of state, recalled in an interview how she had often encountered more resistance from American colleagues than from the Arab heads of state she had been warned about. Hillary Clinton was shocked at the low priority of women's issues when she became secretary of state in 2008. She immediately opened an Office of Global Issues, headed by Melanne Verveer, who now heads the Georgetown Institute for Women.

“It was the little things,” Albright explained. Like when she raised her voice in meetings, “men would say, ‘Don’t be so emotional,’ or would drum their fingers on the table and say I was talking too long — when the men actually talked much longer.”

Similar attitudes endure today, powerful women say.

Hillary on the March by Gail Collins New York Times

Gail Collins nails it, capturing this historic moment (part one) as Hillary Clinton seizes America's brass ring at tonight's Democratic convention. We all know that inspiring oratory is not her strongest skill. Perhaps she can speak an action plan, punctuated with audio snippets from all the inspiring speakers who have endorsed her this week.

Collins taps into a rarely discussed undercurrent of identity politics in America, a strong moral belief among women that we will be fairer, more effective, and stronger leaders than so many male politicos who have held exclusive power in America. At the least, we are equally effective.

Those of us who support Hillary Clinton are counting on her to break through THIS glass ceiling -- that men are our moral leaders, a belief fundamental in the bedrock of most religious institutions in America. Countless women have rejected this fundamental tenet of American life for several decades. While many incredible women have lead this renouncing of America's male dominance for decades, Hillary Clinton carries this mantle on this day.

On this day, HWN would like to honor one of those unspoken names in American history: Sarah Grimke and her sister Angelina. ~ Anne

As Gail Collins notes:

"I’d like to think that somewhere, all the women who worked for this moment through American history are watching and nodding happily. Like the sisters Sarah and Angelina Grimke, who really don’t get enough mention. They were the daughters of a wealthy pre-Civil War South Carolina slave owner who figured out on their own, when they were hardly more than babies, that the system was wrong. (When Sarah was about 4 she went to the docks and asked a sea captain to take her to a place where whipping was prohibited.)"

A Few Simple Truths About Immigration New York Times Editorial Board

Donald Trump and his allies at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland peddled two falsehoods about America’s immigration problem. One was the vision presented by speaker after speaker of a nation overrun with foreigners crossing American borders and infiltrating communities to rob and kill. Another was the notion that most Americans are desperate for the kind of tough-guy response — including massive deportation and building a wall — that Mr. Trump offers as his solution.

Ghazala Khan: Trump criticized my silence. He knows nothing about true sacrifice Washington Post

Donald Trump has asked why I did not speak at the Democratic convention. He said he would like to hear from me. Here is my answer to Donald Trump: Because without saying a thing, all the world, all America, felt my pain. I am a Gold Star mother. Whoever saw me felt me in their heart.

Donald Trump said I had nothing to say. I do. My son Humayun Khan, an Army captain, died 12 years ago in Iraq. He loved America, where we moved when he was 2 years old. He had volunteered to help his country, signing up for the ROTC at the University of Virginia. This was before the attack of Sept. 11, 2001. He didn’t have to do this, but he wanted to.

Poll: Clinton Rides Convention Bump Past Trump Morning Consult

We'll watch what happens in the coming week, but this Morning Consult poll has Hillary leading Trump for the first time among men. Last week Trump beat her by 8 pts among men. Today she led by 1 pt.

Hillary Clinton is once again leading Donald Trump in the presidential race after her party’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The former secretary of State leads the Republican, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a new Morning Consult survey taken in the days following the DNC gathering. It’s a 7-point swing from the previous poll, in which Trump surged to a 4-point lead following the Republican National Committee’s convention in Cleveland.

Almost one in five voters (17 percent) remain undecided.