Election Update: Clinton's Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight is now updating their probability from giving Hillary Clinton a 51% chance of winning the election yesteday July 31, to raising it to 53.3% today. We may not live through this daily dose of poll news. Read their detailed breakdown of new polling and why their model raised Hillary's advantage today.

Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump CNN

A new CNN/ORC poll gives Hillary Clinton a 7-point convention bounce, in a 4-way race with Johnson and Stein. In a 2-way race, Clinton leads 45% to 37%.

Post-convention, the % of people who believe her policies will move the country in the right direction increased from 43% to 48%. There has also been a significant increase from May when 48% said their vote was one of support for her vs. an anti-Trump vote to now, where 58% support her.

Did Clinton get a post-convention bump? CBS News

In a CBS poll of 1393 adults, including 1,131 registered voters conducted July 29-31, 2016, 46% of voters say they support Clinton in November, with 39% saying they'll back Trump.

Support among Sanders voters increased from 67% pre-convention to 73% in the new poll.

Trump's RNC Was Least Effective Party Convention In Three Decades, Poll Finds Slate

Last week the pollsters at Gallup revealed that Donald Trump's Republican National Convention keynote was the most poorly received of any such speech since they began keeping data on the subject in 1996. On Monday, Gallup released another Trump-related finding that's also bad news for the GOP nominee.

Fewer People say they are now willing to vote for him.

Clinton & Trump On Economy

Moody's: Where Trump's Economic Policies Might Spark Recession, Clinton's Could Boost GDP and Lower Unemployment Forbes

As a follow-up to their June analysis of the consequences of Donald Trump’s economic policy proposals, Moody’s economists Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis and Adam Ozimek released on Friday a twin analysis that scrutinizes the potential consequences of Hillary Clinton’s economic policy proposals. As they did for Trump, Zandi et. al took a microscope to three different scenarios: assuming all of Clinton’s proposals become law; assuming Congress intervenes and she gets just most of what she’s proposing; and assuming that significant compromise is required and what ultimately gets enacted are modified versions of her original proposals. But while the format of the newest report is the same, the conclusion is anything but.

“The upshot of our analysis is that Secretary Clinton’s economic policies, when taken together, will result in a stronger U.S. economy under almost any scenario,” they wrote on Friday. ”The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished,” they concluded in June.

Hillary Clinton Headlines August 1, 2016

From Humphrey Hatred to Bernie or Bust -- The High Price of the Politics of Petulance The Daily Beast

With 100 Days to Go, Is Clinton or Trump the Favorite? The Daily Beast

This man's touching story about Hillary Clinton is going viral Harper's Bazaar US

Can Sanders and Warren Work Together Politico

Top Jeb Bush adviser leaves GOP. will vote for Hillary Clinton if Florida Is Close CNN

Trump Versus Hitler: What We Can Learn From Weimar Germany The Daily Beast

Longtime Trump Adviser Claims Khizr Khan Is a Terrorist Agent Slate