Election Update: Clinton's Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight is now updating their probability from giving Hillary Clinton a 51% chance of winning the election yesteday July 31, to raising it to 53.3% today. We may not live through this daily dose of poll news. Read their detailed breakdown of new polling and why their model raised Hillary's advantage today.

Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump CNN

A new CNN/ORC poll gives Hillary Clinton a 7-point convention bounce, in a 4-way race with Johnson and Stein. In a 2-way race, Clinton leads 45% to 37%.

Post-convention, the % of people who believe her policies will move the country in the right direction increased from 43% to 48%. There has also been a significant increase from May when 48% said their vote was one of support for her vs. an anti-Trump vote to now, where 58% support her.

Did Clinton get a post-convention bump? CBS News

In a CBS poll of 1393 adults, including 1,131 registered voters conducted July 29-31, 2016, 46% of voters say they support Clinton in November, with 39% saying they'll back Trump.

Support among Sanders voters increased from 67% pre-convention to 73% in the new poll.

Trump's RNC Was Least Effective Party Convention In Three Decades, Poll Finds Slate

Last week the pollsters at Gallup revealed that Donald Trump's Republican National Convention keynote was the most poorly received of any such speech since they began keeping data on the subject in 1996. On Monday, Gallup released another Trump-related finding that's also bad news for the GOP nominee.

Fewer People say they are now willing to vote for him.

Clinton & Trump On Economy

Moody's: Where Trump's Economic Policies Might Spark Recession, Clinton's Could Boost GDP and Lower Unemployment Forbes

As a follow-up to their June analysis of the consequences of Donald Trump’s economic policy proposals, Moody’s economists Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis and Adam Ozimek released on Friday a twin analysis that scrutinizes the potential consequences of Hillary Clinton’s economic policy proposals. As they did for Trump, Zandi et. al took a microscope to three different scenarios: assuming all of Clinton’s proposals become law; assuming Congress intervenes and she gets just most of what she’s proposing; and assuming that significant compromise is required and what ultimately gets enacted are modified versions of her original proposals. But while the format of the newest report is the same, the conclusion is anything but.

“The upshot of our analysis is that Secretary Clinton’s economic policies, when taken together, will result in a stronger U.S. economy under almost any scenario,” they wrote on Friday. ”The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished,” they concluded in June.

Hillary Clinton Headlines August 1, 2016

From Humphrey Hatred to Bernie or Bust -- The High Price of the Politics of Petulance The Daily Beast

With 100 Days to Go, Is Clinton or Trump the Favorite? The Daily Beast

This man's touching story about Hillary Clinton is going viral Harper's Bazaar US

Can Sanders and Warren Work Together Politico

Top Jeb Bush adviser leaves GOP. will vote for Hillary Clinton if Florida Is Close CNN

Trump Versus Hitler: What We Can Learn From Weimar Germany The Daily Beast

Longtime Trump Adviser Claims Khizr Khan Is a Terrorist Agent Slate

How Donald Trump Won Vox

For all the political talking heads who continue to occupy an intellectual space vaporized by Donald Trump, Vox lays out the tactical specifics that took Trump from "well-known celebrity who polled well among Republicans" to "guy who beat a dozen established politicians and became the nominee". Yes, the story belongs to the brash, bold, populist-driven, supremely-confident Trump who has literally held a profit-driven media hanging on his every word for the last 15 months. But it's also a story of a blundering Republican establishment with myopic vision.

The tale, writes Vox, is one in which "disciples of free market economics were brought down largely by collective action problems and an inability to coordinate." Fundamental to this situation is a 30-year Republican war on government, a battle that has now delivered a victory prize of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump's Ghostwriter Tells All The New Yorker

Tony Schwartz helped create the myth of Donald Trump as the ghostwriter behind 'The Art of the Deal'. Schwartz was no ordinary ghostwriter. He made quite a business deal himself with Trump, one negotiated by Sy Newhouse. Now Schwartz has grave concerns about the mythology he helped create around Trump. This is one of the most damning articles about Trump I've read. ~ Anne

"Schwartz had ghostwritten Trump’s 1987 breakthrough memoir, earning a joint byline on the cover, half of the book’s five-hundred-thousand-dollar advance, and half of the royalties. The book was a phenomenal success, spending forty-eight weeks on the Times best-seller list, thirteen of them at No. 1. More than a million copies have been bought, generating several million dollars in royalties. The book expanded Trump’s renown far beyond New York City, making him an emblem of the successful tycoon. Edward Kosner, the former editor and publisher of New York, where Schwartz worked as a writer at the time, says, “Tony created Trump. He’s Dr. Frankenstein.”

{. . . }

“I put lipstick on a pig,” he said. “I feel a deep sense of remorse that I contributed to presenting Trump in a way that brought him wider attention and made him more appealing than he is.” He went on, “I genuinely believe that if Trump wins and gets the nuclear codes there is an excellent possibility it will lead to the end of civilization.”

If he were writing “The Art of the Deal” today, Schwartz said, it would be a very different book with a very different title. Asked what he would call it, he answered, “The Sociopath.”

{. . . }

. . . Schwartz believes that Trump’s short attention span has left him with “a stunning level of superficial knowledge and plain ignorance.” He said, “That’s why he so prefers TV as his first news source—information comes in easily digestible sound bites.” He added, “I seriously doubt that Trump has ever read a book straight through in his adult life.” During the eighteen months that he observed Trump, Schwartz said, he never saw a book on Trump’s desk, or elsewhere in his office, or in his apartment.

{ . . . }

This year, Schwartz has heard some argue that there must be a more thoughtful and nuanced version of Donald Trump that he is keeping in reserve for after the campaign. “There isn’t,” Schwartz insists. “There is no private Trump.” This is not a matter of hindsight. While working on “The Art of the Deal,” Schwartz kept a journal in which he expressed his amazement at Trump’s personality, writing that Trump seemed driven entirely by a need for public attention. “All he is is ‘stomp, stomp, stomp’—recognition from outside, bigger, more, a whole series of things that go nowhere in particular,” he observed, on October 21, 1986. But, as he noted in the journal a few days later, “the book will be far more successful if Trump is a sympathetic character—even weirdly sympathetic—than if he is just hateful or, worse yet, a one-dimensional blowhard.”

{ . . . }

In his journal, Schwartz wrote, “Trump stands for many of the things I abhor: his willingness to run over people, the gaudy, tacky, gigantic obsessions, the absolute lack of interest in anything beyond power and money.” Looking back at the text now, Schwartz says, “I created a character far more winning than Trump actually is.” The first line of the book is an example. “I don’t do it for the money,” Trump declares. “I’ve got enough, much more than I’ll ever need. I do it to do it. Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That’s how I get my kicks.” Schwartz now laughs at this depiction of Trump as a devoted artisan. “Of course he’s in it for the money,” he said. “One of the most deep and basic needs he has is to prove that ‘I’m richer than you.’ ” As for the idea that making deals is a form of poetry, Schwartz says, “He was incapable of saying something like that—it wouldn’t even be in his vocabulary.” He saw Trump as driven not by a pure love of dealmaking but by an insatiable hunger for “money, praise, and celebrity.” Often, after spending the day with Trump, and watching him pile one hugely expensive project atop the next, like a circus performer spinning plates, Schwartz would go home and tell his wife, “He’s a living black hole!”'

Related: Donald Trump's Deals Rely on Being Creative with the Truth

Bill Maher Unloads

Bill Maher's Message to Bernie Bros: Stop Being a 'Fuckin' Baby' and Help Stop Trump The Daily Beast

Lastly, what are your thoughts on Bernie’s very reluctant endorsement of Hillary Clinton, and your Sanders campaign obit?

[Laughs] It was a little strained at first. I think what Bernie thought is, well, now that James Comey is not going to send her up the river, it’s about time to fold the tents, and they are united against a common enemy: osteoporosis—no, Donald Trump. There was a bit of a weird buddy cop thing going of, “Well, he’s a socialist and she gives speeches for Goldman Sachs, and together they’re going to bring down this lunatic!” The question now is, will the kids go along? Will the Bernie Bros go along? I saw a lot of stuff on the internet where they felt betrayed by Bernie himself. They think everybody in the world has betrayed Bernie, and now they think Bernie has betrayed Bernie. Hopefully they will come on board and realize that there are only two choices on the menu, and nobody wants to eat poisoned vomit. I saw one Bernie supporter say, “Convince me to vote without using Trump in a sentence.” Well, Trump is in the sentence, you fuckin’ baby! Convince you to vote? I don’t have to convince you to vote! It’s your life; I’m out of college. My college bills are paid off and Trump’s going to cut my taxes, so I’m not going to convince you to vote. This country is more in your future than mine, so two choices, pal. America: land of the free. Deal with it.

Related: Sanders Fans Plan DNC 'Fart-In' Protesst of Clinton Nomination NBC News

Clinton Beats Trump Among Latinos 76% to 14% NBC News

Donald Trump's favorability ratings among Latino registered voters is hitting historic lows. In a situation that doesn't get enough media coverage, George W Bush received about 40% of the Latino vote in 2004. John McCain won 31% of their support in 2008 and even Mitt Romney won 27% of Latinos in 2012.

In a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll of registered voters, Hillary Clinton has the support of 76% of Latino voters, with only 14% saying they support Trump.

A majority — 63% — of Latinos describe themselves as "pessimistic and worried" about Trump's ability to serve as president, while an additional 20 % say they are "uncertain and wondering" about his capacity to do the job.

Clinton's favorability rating with Latinos is 64% positive, 25% negative. The poll was conducted in English and Spanish with half of respondents saying they speak English at home.

Related: Pew reports Catholics gravitating toward Clinton: A new poll finds that US Catholics support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by almost 20 percentage points. America Magazine