May 11, 2016

Does Bernie Sanders Try To Destroy Hillary Clinton Or Become Party Leader

May 11, 2016/ Anne Enke

Why Trump Won't Get Sanders' Supporters Politico

On the surface, Trump has a case to make that he’s a more natural home for frustrated “felt-the-Bern” voters than Clinton is. He is a more vociferous critic of global trade rules than she is. He does less big dollar campaign fundraising than she does. And he is a greater skeptic of military intervention than she is.

But Bernie’s revolutionaries are not now buying many tickets for the Trump Train, even as they confront the reality that Sanders can’t win the nomination. While Clinton may have struggled to win millennials—particularly white working class millennials—in the primary against Sanders, they appear ready to forgive. Harvard’s Institute of Politics, which specializes in surveying young voters, found Clinton trounces Trump 61 percent to 25 percent with voters under 30 years of age, a bigger margin than Obama had over Romney.

Sanders' Dilemma: Go for Broke or Go for Influence Bloomberg Politics

Democrats are increasingly warning that while Bernie Sanders deserves high praise for elevating issues like income inequality and the minimum wage, his incessant attacks on front-runner Hillary Clinton will surely hurt the party and make him the villain.

Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor, presidential candidate and Democratic National Committee chairman, offers good advice when he says "The way to get Hillary to cooperate is to be cooperative and not to attack her personally."

"He could win by losing if he chooses the right tack,'' Steve Schale, Obama's 2008 Florida primary manager said. "If he plays his cards right—help Hillary, help define Trump—he'll go back to the Senate as an exceptionally powerful man with a movement. If he's seen playing sore loser and constantly driving a knife into an opponent he's not going to beat, he could go to the Senate as a pariah who really hurt the party's chances."

At rallies this week in Sacramento, California and Salem, Oregon, Sanders showed no signs of letting up on Clinton. He continued to launch barbs over her vote to authorize the Iraq war and her ties to Wall Street donors and wealthy campaign financiers. On Wednesday, he showed little patience when pressed in an interview by MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell if his continued presence in the race hurts Clinton and helps presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Polling Myths Hurt Hillary

The Myth of the Disappearing Nonwhite Voter by Jamelle Bouie Slate

Bouie takes up the expanding white electorate theory that Quinnipiac used in their recent swing state polling, a decision that most definitely expanded results for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, while decreasing support for Hillary Clinton.

2016 Black Primary Turnout Exceeds 2008 Levels

While anything is possible in these ferocious political waters, it's a fact that black voter turnout has increased every four years since 1996. That year black voter turnout hit a low of 53%. In 2012 black voterout reached 66.2%, surpassing white turnout for the first time in American history. Bouie analyzes black turnout in the recent Super Tuesday states, and finds their support for Hillary at levels higher than 2008 primary turnout.

Heavy Hispanic and Latino Registration

Hispanic turnout has also grown, from 44 percent in 1996 to a high of nearly 50 percent in 2008. But it decreased to 48 percent in the 2012 election. In general, turnout among Hispanic and Latino voters tends to lag far behind their share of eligible voters and registered voters. But there are early signs that turnout may rebound and return to its earlier trajectory. Since January, the rate of Hispanic voter registration has doubled in California and increased by large margins in North Carolina and Georgia. While some of this reflects the extent to which the country’s Hispanic population skews young, there’s evidence that it’s a reaction to Trump and his vocal, anti-immigrant rhetoric. If that’s true, we could see a growth in the total number of Hispanic voters and the share of them that go to the polls. And either way, if the turnout rate for Hispanic voters simply holds steady, they’ll have a larger impact than in 2012, given their growth in the electorate.

There is no guarantee that Clinton will win Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida. But the asumptions in the Quinnipiac polling run against the grain of reality, leaving one to wonder why.

Hillary Clinton Headlines May 11, 2016

Hillary Clinton: A woman and candidate with seriously complicated woman issues The Washington Post

More Women Are Putting Money Into Politics Than Ever Before Slate

Sanders' end game: keep the message alive as nomination slips away The Guardian

Why Can't Hillary Clinton Lock Up the Nomination The Atlantic

Michael Moore: I'll support Hillary Clinton if she's the nominee Politico

Trump Can't Pivot Slate

Anne-Marie Slaughter's advice to the next president Slate

Released Emails Show Use of Unclassified Systems Was Routine New York Times

Revealed: Secret Donor Behind Hillary Email Lawsuit Has Stalked Clintons For Decades Reverbpress.com

The Americans Trump Betrayed by Courting Big-Money Donors The Atlantic

May 10, 2016

Hillary Clinton Continues To Dominate Electoral College Presidential Predictions

May 10, 2016/ Anne Enke

Hillary Clinton Has Edge Over Donald Trump in General Election NPR

NPR is joining the 2016 presidential election club of electoral college analysis, issuing the first monthly update based on fundamentals — historical trends and demographics, plus reporting and polling (both public and private).

As every set of presidential analytics argues, (FiveThirtyEight, Cook Report as examples), Hillary wins. NPR promises to explore the data from questioning angles, writing:

"But there is also the potential that this fall's presidential battlegrounds could be re-sorted — pitting white, working-class voters, whom Trump is appealing to, against Latino voters, who appear to be in Clinton's corner. Traditional ways of thinking about the map should and will be challenged. So in addition to our current ratings, we also explore several possibilities and scenarios, including Trump's potential path and even two potential ties, based on Trump doing well in the Upper Midwest and Clinton racking up wins in competitive states where the Latino vote is important."

Donald Trump Wrong That Hillary Clinton Doesn't Do Very Well With Women PolitiFact

PolitiFact gives Donald Trump a "pants on fire" rating for his assertion that Hillary Clinton doesn't do well with women in polls. The man is lyin' Donnie, a man who actually does have small hands.

During a May 2 interview on CNN’s New Day, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump doubled down on his charge that his potential Democratic rival in November, Hillary Clinton, is playing the "woman card."

"She's playing the woman card," Trump told host Chris Cuomo. "And if she didn't play the woman card, she would have no chance whatsoever of winning."

Trump went on to say that Clinton’s standing among female voters in particular is nothing to write home about.

"Frankly, (Hillary Clinton) doesn’t do very well with women," Trump said. "If you look at what happened recently, … in the last two weeks, including New York. I won with women by vast, vast majorities. I was way, way up with women far above anybody else in the exit polls of the recent election."

RealClearPolitics.com in April reviewed seven polls with Clinton/Trump head-to-head matchups. Clinton won them all, with an average of +19. Her weakest win was the Rasmussen poll -- a notoriously Republican-leaning poll -- in which HIllary bested Trump by 6 points.

Getting Bashed By Berners

'I've been silent': Harvard's Clinton backers face life on a pro-Bernie campus The Guardian

As a member of the Harvard for Hillary group, Janet Ho canvassed for Clinton during the Massachusetts primary. Ho, a 19-year-old freshman, is an open advocate for the former secretary of state, but admitted that being a Clinton supporter can be difficult.

“Do I feel more challenged by Bernie supporters? Yeah. Do I feel more challenged in general? Yes, I do,” she said. Ho said she felt she had to “justify” her backing for Clinton to Sanders fans.

“They see the Hillary supporter as someone who doesn’t really want as much equality as they do.

“Like: ‘What do you mean why don’t you want free tuition for everyone? It’s not fair. Why don’t you want equal pay for everyone? Why don’t you want to tax the rich? What’s wrong with you?’ Like: you’re evil.”

Bernie's Narcissicism Complicates Democratic Race

Bernie Sanders Makes Things Ackward for Hillary Clinton's DNC Takeover MSNBC

Bernie Sanders, enjoys another moment in the limelight, speaking to campaign volunteers in Bowling Green, Ky. There are procedures in how things work at this point in the nomination process, but Bernie will have none of it. He insists that he will take a floor fight to the convention, disregarding the damage to all Democrats in November, and not only his foe -- the woman he loves to hate -- Hillary Clinton.

The California primary is the end of it, say Democratic insiders.

"So the DNC and the Clinton campaign will have to execute the merger earlier, with one candidate still in the race and potentially over his fierce objections. But the clock is ticking on the general election, and Democrats are eyeing the day after the California primary as a likely time to end this.

Typically, party nominees move quickly to lead the national parties, which essentially become arms of the campaign.

“In 2000, when I was chair, after [Al] Gore beat [Bill] Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire, Bradley essentially withdrew. A week later, someone arrived at DNC headquarters and said, ‘Hi, we’re taking over,’” said former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who ran the DNC during the final years of Bill Clinton’s administration. “They really take over. And you know, as DNC chair, that you are now working for the campaign.”

Party chairs usually stay on – and there’s no sign Clinton wants to replace Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz – but now the campaign calls the shots."

As I keep saying, Bernie Sanders wants to destroy Hillary Clinton. Let's be clear-eyed about this. She is his public enemy #1. In the privacy of the voting booth, I believe there's a strong chance he will vote for Trump.

As his chief surrogate Susan Sarandon said to Chris Hayes, voting for Trump will hasten their revolution. Present generations can suffer, so future ones will thrive.