Bernie Sanders Will Not Be President The Week

"The problem is that Bernie Sanders isn't Barack Obama — and no, I'm not just talking about Obama's presumably much greater ability to mobilize the African-American vote. I also mean his enviable capacity to inspire moderates as well as liberals to vote for him. Sanders, by contrast, is the strong favorite of those who identify as "very liberal" but understandably polls weakly among self-described "moderate" Democrats. With Sanders continuing to propose very liberal economic policies that even leading progressive commentators consider to be vague and unrealistic, that is unlikely to change.

But doesn't Clinton face equal and opposite problems of her own by appealing primarily to moderates in the party? She would if there were equal numbers of economically liberal and moderate Democrats, but there aren't. Though the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents willing to describe themselves as economically liberal has increased in recent years, the terms still apply to just 32 percent of the total. The proportion of those describing themselves as economically moderate or conservative, meanwhile, is 64 percent.

Which means that Clinton's more economically moderate base of support is roughly double the size of Sanders' liberal base."

Unfuzzy Math: It's Still Hillary Clinton's To Lose The Daily Beast

“I don’t know that it’s right to say anything in particular has ‘gone wrong’ for Hillary in Iowa and New Hampshire,” David Axelrod responded in an email. He managed Barack Obama’s campaign against Clinton in ’08. “Iowa has always been poised for a candidate like Sanders to do well, and she has hedged against that by building a far stronger organization there than she had in ’08. I still rate her a slight favorite to win there.

“New Hampshire is a home game for Bernie, so she is fighting uphill,” Axelrod continued. “Beyond those states, however, the terrain turns sharply in her favor, which wasn’t the case in 2008. Ironically, her firewall may be her gaudy lead among minority voters who went in large numbers to Obama in 2008. Twin losses to start the year would be damaging and surely lengthen the race, which is far from ideal. But even if she does lose them, she would be the favorite coming out of it, albeit a nervous one.”

Hillary Clinton Headlines Jan. 20

Joe Biden: US Doesn't Need 'Socialism' CNN

The Juggernaut Continues: Hillary 62% Bernie 26% in Florida Hillary HQ

Unfuzzy Math: It's Still Hillary Clinton's Race to Lose The Daily Beast

Bernie Sanders gains on Hillary Clinton in a new poll -- but it's not all good news for him Washington Post

Poll: Bernie Sanders is walloping Clinton in New Hampshire USA Today

Hispanic Voting Power Swells to Record for 2016, PEW Study Says Bloomberg Politics

Human Rights Campaign Endorses Hillary Clinton for President HRC

United Brotherhood of Carpenters Endorses Hillary Carpenters.org

Republican Operatives Try To Help Bernie Sanders Bloomberg Politics

Hillary Clinton's New Progressive Alignment The New Yorker

Flint Mayor Endorses Hillary Clinton USA Today

Hillary Clinton Gets Set for a Long Slog Against Bernie Sanders New York Times

Bernie Sanders Faces Skeptical Voters in South Carolina Bloomberg Politics

Hillary Clinton Starts Ending Her Media Cold War The Daily Beast

Hillary Clintn's Lead Over bernie Sanders Widens **WSJ**
Hillary Clinton has increased her national lead to 25 percentage points over Bernie Sanders, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.
The summary maintains the talking points of close races in Iowa w/o stressing that Sanders support is strictly among the young in Iowa. We addressed these details with charts from VOX yesterday (Sat.) The month change in the Iowa caucus date presents a very different geographic congregation of those students, now back in school on 3 university campuses. This is why Five Thirty Eight is convinced that Hillary will win Iowa heartily.
In spite of the daily saturation in politico talking heads analyzing polls, the WSJ shares key charts that show nationally, just how little the national race between Clinton and Sanders has changed over a long period of time. Nationally, it also shows Hillary's position with young voters currently much stronger than in Iowa.

538 Projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa Politico

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

The polls-plus forecast gives Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning, while Sanders comes in at 18 percent. That margin narrows dramatically with a look at just Iowa polls, with Clinton leading Sanders 66 percent to 34 percent.

The forecasts suggest that state polls alone may not be the most accurate predictor of primary results.

Aside from sorting between Democrats and Republicans and individual states, the online forecast tool offers two filtering options: polls-plus, a forecast that determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on state and national polls as well as endorsements; and polls-only, a determination based solely on state polls.