Hillary Clinton's National Lead Over Sanders Widens

Hillary Clintn's Lead Over bernie Sanders Widens WSJ

Hillary Clinton has increased her national lead to 25 percentage points over Bernie Sanders, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.

The summary maintains the talking points of close races in Iowa w/o stressing that Sanders support is strictly among the young in Iowa. We addressed these details with charts from VOX yesterday (Sat.) The month change in the Iowa caucus date presents a very different geographic congregation of those students, now back in school on 3 university campuses. This is why Five Thirty Eight is convinced that Hillary will win Iowa heartily.

In spite of the daily saturation in politico talking heads analyzing polls, the WSJ shares key charts that show nationally, just how little the national race between Clinton and Sanders has changed over a long period of time. Nationally, it also shows Hillary's position with young voters currently much stronger than in Iowa.

538 Projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa Politico

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.
The polls-plus forecast gives Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning, while Sanders comes in at 18 percent. That margin narrows dramatically with a look at just Iowa polls, with Clinton leading Sanders 66 percent to 34 percent.
The forecasts suggest that state polls alone may not be the most accurate predictor of primary results.
Aside from sorting between Democrats and Republicans and individual states, the online forecast tool offers two filtering options: polls-plus, a forecast that determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on state and national polls as well as endorsements; and polls-only, a determination based solely on state polls.

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