Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He's About To Run Out Of Them FiveThirtyEight

So most likely, Sanders will need to find another way to make up ground on Clinton in the delegate race. Wyoming (April 9) and North Dakota (June 7) are the only remaining stateside caucuses. The rest of the stateside races are primaries. Sanders has exceeded his delegate targets in just three stateside primaries. He’s matched them in three and underperformed in 15. Given that Sanders is still so far behind in the delegate count, he needs to outperform his delegate targets by a lot.

How likely is that? Well, he’s behind by about 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. That’s not a huge deficit, and it wouldn’t shock me if Sanders won Wisconsin given that the black population there is below 10 percent. (To match his delegate target in Wisconsin, he needs a net gain of 10 delegates there.) Sanders, though, will likely have more difficulty in later primaries in April, such as Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania, where African Americans make up more than 10 percent of the state’s population.

Sanders had a strong week, and this has been a crazy year in politics. But there’s nothing in the recent results to suggest that the overall trajectory of the Democratic race has changed. Clinton was and is a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.

All-out warfare is about to break out between Bernie Sanders' supporters and the political press RawStory

The spirit of this RawStory Mar. 24 Joshua Holland op ed is playing out. It probably will get nasty between the Sanders campaign and the political press in the next few weeks.

Bernie and his supporters are understandably on an emotional roll, but they are meeting up with a different press corp than the highly-supportive one Bernie has courted for months. Like us, they've all running their calculators and -- forget the superdelegates -- they know the statistical probability of this forward-path to the nomination actually happening.

Even today there were reports that 'yes' Hillary has had more media coverage than Bernie -- and hers was largely legative vs positive for Sanders.

But that friendly press corps that has never taken Bernie seriously enough to even vet him once the crowds were amazing, can run a calculator.

"Journalists with knowledge of the calendar won’t report that Sanders is turning the race on its head. They won’t report that it’s a whole new ballgame, or that a win in Alaska predicts a victory in Maryland. They won’t report that Sanders is surging.

A lot of Sanders supporters will want them to cover these victories in sweeping terms, and write that the momentum has shifted, but they won’t. They won’t report these things because they aren’t true, or at least because there will be no reason to expect them to prove true at the time (one never knows what might happen in the future). . . .

A lot of Sanders supporters have been primed by progressive media outlets that support the candidate – and various Facebook memes – to see these things through the prism of a conspiracy by the “establishment” media to keep Sanders down. So while the reporting will be factual and responsible — and based on the delegate math – we can expect our social media feeds to fill up with a million pissed off posts complaining that Sanders’ big win in Wyoming (18 delegates) wasn’t front-page news, or demanding to know why the media refuse to report the obvious fact that these next five contests are game-changers that will surely propel Sanders to a glorious victory over Hitlery Killton."

6 National Polls Post March 15 Give Hillary An Aggregate 9 Pt. Lead Over Sanders

CNN Poll of (Six New) Polls: HIllary Clinton, Donald Trump Lead Nationally CNN

The Sanders campaign is pedalling some bad information on results of the most recent national polls. Bernie cites a last week Bloomberg Poll that had them even (technically Bernie was leading by 1).

CNN surveyed on Thursday Mar. 24 the six most recent national polls from: The polls included in the average include a Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 16-21; a CNN/ORC poll, Monmouth University poll and CBS News/New York Times poll all conducted March 17-20; a Bloomberg News poll conducted March 19-22; and a Fox News poll conducted March 20-22.

The survey average finds Clinton beating Sanders, 52% to 43% across the six polls. Bernie can quote Bloomberg only, but it's not representative of the aggregate trend of six polls taken after the March 15 primaries. I'm surprised that the media let's him make statements like that, because they confuse viewers and supporters.