Trump Immigration Ban & H1-B Visa Slowdown Impacts Travel Industry, Silicon Valley & Doctor Shortage
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There are "mounting signs" of "a broad chilling effect on demand for international travel to the United States," according to the U.S. Travel Association.
The US Travel Association is not the first organization to issue a statement of deep concern about the Trump administration's immigration policies on tourism. As expected, the Trump Administration denies the allegations.
White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters disputed the contention, saying, "It takes several months for each month's international arrival statistics to be processed and released to the public. To claim the executive order has had an impact on travel would be premature."
NYC & Company isn't waiting several months as Walters suggests. New York has revised its 2017 forecast down, predicting a decline of 300,000 visitors to the city. If correct, tourism will plummet to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Philadelphia Convention and Visitors Bureau said it had lost out on an international meeting bringing 3000 people to the city. The meeting will be held in either Canada or Mexico instead.
"It's known as the Trump Slump," travel guru Arthur Frommer wrote last month on Frommers.com. He called it "an unintended consequence of the Trump-led efforts to stop many Muslims from coming to the U.S.," resulting in "a sharp drop in foreign tourism to our nation that imperils jobs and touristic income."
U.S. Travel Association president and CEO Roger Dow explains that many international travelers have interpreted President Donald Trump's policies as "wanting to discourage international visitors generally, not just those who pose a security risk."
Not so diplomatic, a Jan. 30 op-ed piece in the Toronto Star encouraged Canadians to boycott America, until Trump is no longer president. It should be noted that the dollar has also gained strength against other currencies, making travel to America and American exports more expensive.
US Tourism & Travel Surplus in Jeopardy
It might seem counter intuitive, but travel into the US is considered to be an export. Americans traveling abroad is registered as an export. Only about 40% of Americans have passports, a fact that reveals our more conservative ideological bent and the reality that there is so much to see and do in their own country.
For all Trump's shrill arm-waving over trade imbalances, before his election to the US presidency, American enjoyed a trade surplus in tourism. Expenditures by international visitors in the United States totaled $246.2 billion in 2015, yielding a $97.9 billion trade surplus for the year,” according to the International Trade Association. The category of travel and tourism account for about one-tenth of all US exports, writes Slate, and America is the leading exporter in the category globally.
Until Trump was elected president, the trend was a good one. In 2015, there were 78 million international arrivals to the U.S. and 74 million American departures with exports more valuable since the majority of US departures are cross-border, short jaunts to Mexico and Canada.
US 2026 World Cup Bid In Jeopardy
America wants to hold the 2026 World Cup in soccer, and there's serious concern that the games could be in jeopardy. “If players cannot come because of political decisions, or populist decisions, then the World Cup cannot be played there,” Aleksander Ceferin, a top European soccer official, told the New York Times.
Canada and Mexico are in competition for the 2026 games, and today March 7, Mohamed VI of Morocco has asked Spain's King Felipe VI to consider a joint bid also including Portugal to host the 2026 World Cup. The new proposal has the backing of FIFA president Gianni Infantino as a counter-bid to the continental rotation which puts North America in the lead for 2026.
Reports are that the FIFA president likes the idea of a Soccer cup that takes place in Africa and Europe and between Muslim and Christian societies.
Tech & Medical Sectors Wary of H-1B Visa Slowdown
Simultaneously, the technology industry is borderline terrified of the business impacts of Trump's decision to slow down the processing of visas for high-skilled workers, according to The Hill.
Grave fears exist as well in losing ground in filling America's doctor shortage.
Whatever side of this issue you're on, the short-term effect of slowing visa for highly-skilled workers will be negative. Many Silicon Valley companies are already planning to expand their Canadian operations in Vancouver.
“In Canada we have a more open immigration policy, and in Vancouver we have a growing tech sector,” Michael Tippett, a Vancouver-based entrepreneur, explains.
“Also we have the same time zone as Silicon Valley, which makes a big difference when working with different teams across borders.”
Tippett's new company True North aims to help solve the problem of tech companies needing an anchor in Canada. For $6,000 USD, True North offers a travel package, immigration law consultation, and help creating a subsidiary in Canada (although a lot of tech companies, such as Amazon and Hootsuite, already have offices in Vancouver), among other logistical assistance.
The H-1B visa program has been criticized by both Republicans and Democrats. This slowdown is not the first time that fast-tracking has been temporarily suspended.
According to the Mercury News, a bipartisan collection of lawmakers have already submitted bills to overhaul the visa system. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, has proposed curbing abuses — such as replacing American workers with lower paid H-1B contractors — while still allowing talented foreign workers to join U.S. companies.
Any legislative change is likely months away.
America's educational system has not supplied enough qualified American workers to meet our needs and for multiple reasons: 1) tech is not considered sexy in America and workers would rather be in more 'glam industries' like communications; 2) our education system is in deplorable shape in terms of educational math, English and science skills -- like 24-30th place internationally; 3) the cost of quality higher education is out of control and students seeking to work in STEM sectors cannot afford a university education; 4) women STEM grads don't get jobs in the STEM sector proportionately. They have the degree but not a job.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers an in-depth analysis and overview of just how serious America's STEM shortage is -- or isn't. STEM refers to jobs in science, engineering, mathematics, and information technology. Note that the classifications aren't pure.
Numerous reports detail the growing concern of policymakers and industry leaders regarding a shortage in the STEM workforce believed necessary to sustain the U.S. innovation enterprise, global competitiveness, and national security.5 Most notable is the National Academies’ report Rising Above the Gathering Storm, which called for improvements in kindergarten through 12th-grade science and mathematics education and increasing the attractiveness of higher education, among other recommendations.6 The report highlighted troubling issues in a number of areas: low STEM retention rates, a relative decline in the number of U.S. citizens enrolled in science and engineering graduate school, and lower percentages of STEM graduates than those of other developed countries. These sentiments were echoed in a 2012 report by the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee which stated that the current STEM workforce was falling short of demand in both STEM and non-STEM occupations.7 According to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, the United States would need to increase its yearly production of undergraduate STEM degrees by 34 percent over current rates to match the demand forecast for STEM professionals.8
There is a fifth argument that US employers deliberately want H-1B visa holders because they are more focused and less argumentative with their employers -- compared to American workers. Also, there is no long-term commitment to a benefits package. I have no evidence of this fact but colleagues argue that it is true.
It should be noted that there's not total agreement that America has the projected massive shortage of STEM workers. Yet, UC Davis writes that California has over 85,000 unfilled computer jobs with an average salary of $105,622. That data seems to be 2014 data. In February 2015, TechCrunch reported similar numbers with more than 75,000 open jobs in computing in California and only 4,324 computer science graduates to fill them.
America's Doctor Shortage
Grave fears exist as well that the immigration ban and slowdown in H1-B visas will have dire consequences in America's hospitals and among primary care physicians especially in rural communities. Scientific American writes:
More than a quarter of the physician workforce in the U.S. come from other countries, including Syria and Iran. Trump has created fears among foreign-born doctors and medical students that they will be persecuted in the U.S. or forced to leave. Medical school leaders say that sought-after applicants are likely to move their careers to other countries, given the current anti-immigration climate in the Trump administration.
The reasons such doctors are in the U.S. in the first place is that America does not produce enough physicians to keep up with demand. A current deficit of 8,200 primary care doctors and 2,800 psychiatrists is expected to worsen as the population grows and ages, according to a report published in 2016 by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). It estimates the U.S. will face a shortage of up to 94,700 doctors by 2025, with almost a third of the crunch being among primary care physicians.
More than 8,400 doctors working in the U.S. are from two countries listed in the executive order—Syria and Iran—according to data from the American Medical Association. Even more foreign-born physicians—close to 50,000—are from India, which is not included in the travel ban. But the fears created by Trump's original and revised executive orders will ripple across Asia and the Middle East, reaching places like India, says Atul Grover, a physician and executive vice president of the AAMC. “The majority of our foreign doctors come from India and Pakistan, and while they’re not on the list I think when the environment feels this uncertain and this inhospitable, they’ll go to Canada and the U.K.,” he says.
Knee-Jerk Actions Bring Big Consequences
In summary, AOC is no expert on employment and immigration topics. But it seems that immigration-related decisions by the Trump administration -- actions taken for the stated purpose of protecting America's borders and keeping us safe from terrorists -- could have significant and unintended consequences on the American economy. Because of the helter-skelter, and not the reassuring, methodical way in which the Trump administration makes decisions, they are probably clueless as to the consequences of many of their short-sighted actions designed to appease their base of largely lesser-educated people. Popular with the base political optics could bring huge consequences for the American economy.
Whatever the reasons -- as the travel industry is poised for significant 2017 decreases in people coming to the US for professional and personal reasons -- the short-term impact of shutting down the expedited process for H-1B visas will cause the tech industry to expand operations outside of America, easily into Vancouver. Companies cannot operate in a political climate where the labor supply is subject to volatile change, based on immigration law.
With many doctors and medical students applying for visas in April, the negative impact on America's doctor shortage will also be quantifiable in the short-term.
So now we have two major economic sectors at serious risk of negative financial results on the American economy over Trump's policies. Can you imagine the President sitting still long enough to fully understand the potential repercussions of these grave decisions? I seriously doubt it -- and his staff doesn't care either. They are in the West Wing to burn down government and institutions as we know them. ~ Anne
