Absent A Terrorist Attack, Marine Le Pen Is Poised To Lose French Presidency

Writing for The Daily Beast, Christopher Dickey says definitively that "barring an act of God or ISIS, or a massive vote for the mysterious Monsiur Blanc", it is near certain that France will dodge a right-wing bullet, electing 39-year-old centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and not far-right, nationalist-socialistic candidate Marine Le Pen as France's next president. 

The two candidates faced off in their one and only debate on Wednesday night, in which instant polls declared Macron the winner 60%-40%. If Macron is elected on Sunday, his victory represents a huge roadblock in what threatened to be a wave of nativism and populism sweeping Europe after Britain's Brexit vote.  

In America, Trump's Steve Bannon will not be happy if his candidate Le Pen loses. Her loss would also represent a huge setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin and promises one less headache for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is looking steady -- if not totally secure -- on her own road to re-election in September. 

Both candidates are taking a hard line on terrorism, although a large-scale attack in the next three days could deliver a win to Marine Le Pen. Dickey describes the debate and Le Pen's catty references to Macron's significantly-older wife and his former teacher:

On questions of economic nationalism, Le Pen repeatedly fell short as Macron, a policy wonk, demanded specifics that she was hard pressed to deliver. Her key pitch to withdraw from the common currency, for instance, became a muddle of francs and ecus and euros that might have evoked nostalgia in some, but provoked a sense of incompetence and chaos among others.

When Le Pen felt herself stumbling, she tried to goad Macron, laughing at him, shaking her head, and tossing out thinly veiled insults and allusions to his private life. At one point she accused him of “playing student and professor,” a smug reference to the fact he married his high-school drama teacher, who is 24 years older than he is. (Yes, there are some amorous anomalies floating around Macron, but this is France: His wife is very attractive, he jokes about his rumored homosexual liaisons—which the Russian press wrote about at length but without substantiation—and few people care.)

Indeed, Le Pen’s Trumpian penchant for nastiness, which plays well with her traditional base, served her very poorly in the debate.